Our chart tells the story
Unlike school terms, which typically start in the fall, the fall season in real estate usually gets second billing to the spring. While it’s shorter (about three and a half months, as opposed to six months), it’s just as important. Some years, the highest prices happen in October or November. While this likely won’t be one of those years, there’s always a fall surge, as buyers and sellers are both out in force.
So far, the fall market is behaving as expected. Sale prices are up almost 6% over August, and a modest 2.6% over last September. House prices in the 905 area are taking a break, while City prices are still rising. Prices of condo apartments have continued their spring surge this fall, as buyers shift their sights to the more affordable categories of housing.
The really big deal in the September statistics is a 9.4% increase in new listings, compared to a year earlier. This is important for two reasons. First, in a market like Toronto’s with strong demand, more listings mean more selection, and this always draws more buyers. Second, an increase in the supply of listings is essential to the long-term health of the housing market.
If we had to pick one event which triggered the feverish price increases of early 2017, it was the drying up of supply. Over the past several years, the number of resale purchases kept increasing, while the number of resale listings failed to keep pace. By December 2016, the cupboard was virtually bare.
Naturally, the concern is that a similar situation could occur this winter. If the number of available listings is low in January 2018, expect another crazy spring market. We will be watching the numbers closely!
Need some smart advice?
In a rapidly changing market, you need smart, timely advice, whether you’re a buyer or a seller. As experienced baby-boomer agents, we’re pretty smart about this stuff.
We relish challenges, we like to share, and we’re available to help… You can email us, or ask for James and Joanne at 416-483-8000.